In the playing with history project we learned about probability and saw how it was used in renaissance games. We started the project by looking at some dice games and then examining how probability is used in them. We learned that the definition of probability is the likelihood that an event will occur. We learned about observed, theoretical, and conditional probability. Observed probability is a probability based on experiments and your observations. Theoretical probability is a probability based on calculating exact odds. conditional probability is a probability that changes based on other conditions. We then went into more detail on these concepts. Expected value is the value you would expect based on the theoretical probability. Two way tables are a table that allows you to easily see how the probability of multiple events affect each other. We also used tree diagrams that are a way to map out a chain of events and their probability.
In this project we recreated a Renaissance game and looked at how that game used probability. The game I made was Basset. Basset is a card game invented in 1593 by Pietro Cellini. It was a popular gambling game played by those who where very wealthy. It's rules are very different from any modern card games. In Basset the player all draw one card and bet on it. The dealer then begins drawing and every other card count as a win. The more wins a player gets the more return they get on their bet, if they draw a loss the bet goes to the dealer. I adapted the game to made betting more simple than the original betting rules. Chance plays a very big role in this game since it is chance that decides if you draw a win or loss.
For a probability analysis of my game I looked at the chances of drawing your card on the first or second flip. I started by creating a tree diagram of all the possibility´s. I noticed that because it was conditional probability every time you don´t pull your card the chance of it being pulled increases. Using the tree diagram I calculated that the exact probability of your card being pull in one of the first two turns is 432/130052 or .0033.
Overall I learned a lot about probability and its practical application in this project. I liked learning about the different ways that probability can used. I wish that I had taken more challenge options during this project so I could learn some of the other parts of probability as well. In this project I had to start being more organized since there can be a lot of diagrams in probability and I feel that has made me grow.
In this project we recreated a Renaissance game and looked at how that game used probability. The game I made was Basset. Basset is a card game invented in 1593 by Pietro Cellini. It was a popular gambling game played by those who where very wealthy. It's rules are very different from any modern card games. In Basset the player all draw one card and bet on it. The dealer then begins drawing and every other card count as a win. The more wins a player gets the more return they get on their bet, if they draw a loss the bet goes to the dealer. I adapted the game to made betting more simple than the original betting rules. Chance plays a very big role in this game since it is chance that decides if you draw a win or loss.
For a probability analysis of my game I looked at the chances of drawing your card on the first or second flip. I started by creating a tree diagram of all the possibility´s. I noticed that because it was conditional probability every time you don´t pull your card the chance of it being pulled increases. Using the tree diagram I calculated that the exact probability of your card being pull in one of the first two turns is 432/130052 or .0033.
Overall I learned a lot about probability and its practical application in this project. I liked learning about the different ways that probability can used. I wish that I had taken more challenge options during this project so I could learn some of the other parts of probability as well. In this project I had to start being more organized since there can be a lot of diagrams in probability and I feel that has made me grow.